The Anonymous Reply

To answer your question: "Do you believe that the competitive environment that now exists in the D20 scenarios market will result in a gradual increase, over time, of the rewards, both financial and magical, that scenarios offer to player characters?"

Yes.

Now for more detail on why **I** (not to be confused with/nor representing any other entity (which includes companies, persons, deities, and small furry animals)):

First off, some background. I work part of a team (outside of [CENSORED]) that does mechanical editing of manuscripts for other companies ([CENSORED], [CENSORED], [CENSORED], [CENSORED], etc.). So I get to peek at things that are 2-3 months away from being published by these companies. The one thing I'm finding is what I call "power creep". Power creep is basically what you stated, that to be competitive in the eyes of the gamers, companies are putting out new classes, monsters, magic items, adventures that are just slightly more (whatever) when compared to things found in the core 3 rule books. Weather this is due to the munchkin attitudes of their freelancers, or someone didn't RTFM, or simply the author thought if +1 is good, +2 is better, I have no idea. The end result is the same, the average power/toughness of a CR X critter, level X spell, X,000gp magic item grows.

Some prime examples can be found in stuff that has just come out. [CENSORED]'s [CENSORED] prestige class. If you read the class, there is NO drawback to become one, and the power they receive is incredible. However, when I pointed this out, the Editors decided to add in the Note to limit the class only to NPCs and place the [CENSORED] limit on their powers. Or look at the [CENSORED] character concept found in [CENSORED]'s [CENSORED] book (just released). Again, the gains (bonus feats, skills, etc.) are extremely powerful and the drawback is fairly minor and can be completely eliminated without much difficulty (starting with [CENSORED]...). Note that both books I did some mechanics editing for...[CENSORED] chose to ignore my entire edit and so I'm not credited in the book. [CENSORED]'s [CENSORED] was already laid out so most of the major edits (like the [CENSORED]) were ignored to meet a deadline (eventhough the group I'm in met the deadline [CENSORED] gave us...go figure).

Second, I think there will be a backlash to the powercreep of things. If you look at some of the message boards (EN World for example), you'll see a "low-magic" thread about once a day. While 3rd Ed is fairly well balanced for the high magic setting it creates, a fair number of people run low-magic campaigns (exact definition of "low-magic" is varied). I think as things grow in power, more and more people will start to say, "Enough! Players, you can only used what's in the Core 3 rule books...period. No [CENSORED], No [CENSORED], [CENSORED] is right out (ya...I know [CENSORED] wrote it...but even gods lose control)!"

Third, the market will determine what works. Right now the market is starting to consolidate, due to the "gold-rush" being over and the world economy in something of a sour note. With 3rd Ed, new players (typically younger folk 20 and under) will normally play high powered games and like the 'power creep' of things...that is until this group moves on to the next fad (...many went from DnD 2nd Ed to Magic the Gathering and never came back...until 3rd Ed). However, older gamers will use the gaming session as a getaway and look more for story telling/role playing (versus "roll" playing). Many of these gamers have returned to DnD thanks to 3rd Ed. It is these, I'm guessing will rebel against "fluff" items. They won't want/need 3 different classbooks focused on wizards. They won't want the latest greatest spells that act like d4 lightning bolt and monster summon all rolled into one (see the [CENSORED]). While they may incorporate the choice bit here and there, most of those books will be unused. This group also feels the economic pinch more than the younger (doesn't have to pay the mortgage, feed the children, cough up the taxes) group. As such, many of these new books coming down the line may fall short of sales goals.

My guess is that the older group will become more of a market influence than their current situation. As the younger players mature, assuming they are still playing DnD, they will add to the older groups numbers. On top of this, when the younger group moves onto the next fad (like many did with Magic the Gathering), they will no longer be spending money on 3rd Ed stuff. Thus the sub-market that wants power gaming material will shrink.

Note...these groups are just general observations I've made over the last year or so. There are always exceptions. I am not an economist, a lawyer, a demon, a-choo, or alone. So my theory may be completely wrong. However, it should be noted, that [CENSORED] products are geared towards the older group and not designed to cause "power creep". So in a sense, I'm betting my company on my theory, which will probably mean we'll go out of business. ;-)

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